Mathematical Model Predicts Epidemic Development Trends|Innovation Connection·Russia
Russia’s Tyumen State University has created a set of mathematical models to study infectious diseases using the new coronavirus as an example. The model helps reduce the negative economic and social impact of future epidemics.
Mathematicians, microbiologists, sociologists, economists, and big data experts have all worked on the project. This work provides new tools for predicting trends in the number of infections and changes in economic indicators caused by epidemics, such as changes in supply and demand.
According to the researchers, the established mathematical model also makes it possible to evaluate the effectiveness of various measures to prevent infection (such as mask models, isolation measures), and to study indicators for different groups of people, for example, by the degree of risk to health and life or by vaccines. Inoculation rate indicators are distinguished.
Yevgeny Burlakov, a senior researcher at the Institute of Ecology and Agrobiology of Tyumen State University, said the resulting toolkit could be used to develop strategies to prevent the spread of any infectious disease, including currently unknown ones, and to maximize minimize its negative impact on the economy and society.
(Source of manuscripts for this column: Russian Satellite News Agency. Arrangement: Dong Yingbi, our reporter in Russia)